Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 34.671236 37.522365 40.630481 44.295021 48.530040 53.311358 59.177059
2025-04-06 30.118745 33.851500 38.190560 43.692394 50.612804 59.220086 71.066655
2025-04-13 26.916032 30.940011 35.803722 42.262396 50.859327 62.311309 79.519538
2025-04-20 25.714481 30.179162 35.776744 43.550614 54.506523 70.203358 96.260594
2025-04-27 24.688205 29.473992 35.660285 44.589358 57.832137 78.147117 115.427963
2025-05-04 23.699801 28.695233 35.319200 45.200708 60.533097 85.590188 136.388974
2025-05-11 22.547905 27.590180 34.406472 44.837505 61.614021 90.504109 154.454204
2025-05-18 21.470402 26.501020 33.411281 44.216143 62.140924 94.485438 172.300271
2025-05-25 20.440285 25.407541 32.320274 43.322771 62.058012 97.263753 188.679389
2025-06-01 19.523198 24.417239 31.306576 42.446566 61.869259 99.768202 205.810459
2025-06-08 18.609949 23.384405 30.164647 41.263125 60.975387 100.620869 218.750868
2025-06-15 18.430963 23.386829 30.555407 42.598511 64.865503 112.790922 278.980798
2025-06-22 17.818099 22.752260 29.975367 42.320117 65.772878 118.712856 325.050410
2025-06-29 17.181941 22.056358 29.264367 41.764873 66.079316 123.352409 373.311560
2025-07-06 16.420418 21.140898 28.160675 40.435318 64.632698 123.061926 396.612183
2025-07-13 16.273255 21.131321 28.475463 41.633274 68.639326 139.088066 559.760265
2025-07-20 16.082591 21.043649 28.655124 42.598060 72.318913 155.997012 822.914768
2025-07-27 15.823458 20.837075 28.625430 43.165397 75.201295 171.947183 1242.640228
2025-08-03 15.409821 20.373481 28.144700 42.828385 75.880698 180.518472 1700.768843
2025-08-10 14.977864 19.864947 27.563842 42.251537 75.890854 186.660916 2303.308104
2025-08-17 14.525354 19.308840 26.878514 41.421514 75.157961 189.597850 2990.574395
2025-08-24 14.099875 18.782041 26.221682 40.606687 74.370960 192.138685 3996.201385
2025-08-31 13.645452 18.196672 25.443952 39.504950 72.717385 190.329337 4722.074441